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Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
1Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
2Dept. of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA
Abstract. A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
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Citation: Elsner, J. B. and Tsonis, A. A.: Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 1, 41-44, 1994. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
