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www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/13/531/2006/
doi:10.5194/npg-13-531-2006
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed
under a Creative Commons License.
Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
2School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Abstract. Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment.
Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.
Full Article (PDF, 427 KB)
Citation: Knopf, B., Flechsig, M., and Zickfeld, K.: Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 531-540, doi:10.5194/npg-13-531-2006, 2006. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
