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www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/13/629/2006/
doi:10.5194/npg-13-629-2006
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Temporal properties of seismicity and largest earthquakes in SE Carpathians
1Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France
2International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics Moscow, Russia
Abstract. In order to estimate the hazard rate distribution of the largest seismic events in Vrancea, South-Eastern Carpathians, we study temporal properties of historical and instrumental catalogues of seismicity. First, on the basis of Generalized Extreme Value theory we estimate the average return period of the largest events. Then, following Bak et al. (2002) and Corral (2005a), we study scaling properties of recurrence times between earthquakes in appropriate spatial volumes. We come to the conclusion that the seismicity is temporally clustered, and that the distribution of recurrence times is significantly different from a Poisson process even for times largely exceeding corresponding periods of foreshock and aftershock activity. Modeling the recurrence times by a gamma distributed variable, we finally estimate hazard rates with respect to the time elapsed from the last large earthquake.
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Citation: Byrdina, S., Shebalin, P., Narteau, C., and Le Mouël, J. L.: Temporal properties of seismicity and largest earthquakes in SE Carpathians, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 629-639, doi:10.5194/npg-13-629-2006, 2006. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
