Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net 1023-5809 1607-7946 16 3 2009 10.5194/npg-16-393-2009 http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/393/2009/ http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/393/2009/npg-16-393-2009.html http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/393/2009/npg-16-393-2009.pdf 393 397 2009-05-11 Deep bore well water level fluctuations in the Koyna region, India: the presence of a low order dynamical system in a seismically active environment D. V. Ramana dvr@ngri.res.in A. Chelani R. K. Chadha R. N. Singh National Geophysical Research Institute, (CSIR), Uppal road, Hyderabad, India National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, (CSIR), Nagpur, India Water level fluctuations in deep bore wells in the vicinity of seismically active Koyna region in western India provides an opportunity to understand the causative mechanism underlying reservoir-triggered earthquakes. As the crustal porous rocks behave nonlinearly, their characteristics can be obtained by analysing water level fluctuations, which reflect an integrated response of the medium. A Fractal dimension is one such measure of nonlinear characteristics of porous rock as observed in water level data from the Koyna region. It is inferred in our study that a low nonlinear dynamical system with three variables can predict the water level fluctuations in bore wells. Chadha, R. K.,Srivastava, K., and Kuempel, H. J.: Earthquake related changes in well water level and their relation to a static deformation model for the seismically active Koyna-Warna region, India, edited by: Rummel, F., Rock Mechanics with emphasis on stress, Oxford &IBH Publishing Co, New Delhi, 135–150, 2005. Costain, J. K. and Bollinger, G. A.: Climatic changes, streamflow, and long-term forecasting of intraplate seismicity, J. Geodynamics, 22(1/2), 97–117, 1996. Duncan, R. A. and Pyle, D. G.: Rapid eruption of Deccan flood basalts at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary, Nature, 333, 841–843, 1988. Fraser, A. M. and Swinney, H. L.: Independent coordinates for strange attractors from mutual information, Phys. Rev. A., 33, 1134–1140, 1986. Gavrilenko, P., Melikadzé, G., Chélidzé, T., Gibert, D., and Kumsiashvili, G.: Permanent water level drop associated with the Spitak Earthquake: observations at Lisi Borehole (Republic of Georgia) and modelling, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 83–98, 2000. Grassberger, P. and Procaccia, I.: Measuring strangeness of strange attractors, Physica D. 9, 189–208, 1983. Grecksch, G., Roth, F., and Kuempel, H. J.: Coseismic well level changes due to the 1992 Roermond earthquake compared to static deformation of half space solutions, Geophys. J. Int., 138, 470–478, 1999. Gupta, H. K., Radhakrishna, I., Chadha, R. K., Kuempel, H. J., and Grecksch, G.: Pore pressure studies initiated in area of reservoir-induced earthquakes in India, EOS, Trans. Am. Geophys. Un., 81(14), 145–151, 2000. Gupta, H. K.: A review of recent studies of triggered earthquakes by artificial water reservoirs with special emphasis on earthquakes in Koyna, India, Earth Sci. Rev., 58, 279–310, 2002. Kailasam, L. N., Reddy, A. G. B., Joga, M. V., Rao, Y. K., Satyamurthy, Y. K., and Murthy, B. P. R.: Deep electrical resistivity soundings in the Deccan Trap region, Curr. Sci., 45, 9–13, 1976. Matsumoto, N., Kitagawa, G., and Roeloffs, E. A.: Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well, central Japan – I. Groundwater level changes revealed using state space decomposition of atmospheric pressure, rainfall and tidal responses, Geophys. J. Int., 155, 885–898, 2003a. Matsumoto, N. and Roeloffs, E.: A Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well, central Japan – II. Possible mechanism inferred from time-varying hydraulic properties, Geophys. J. Int., 155, 899–913, 2003b. OTT – Hydeometrie, ORPHEUS Pressure probe with integrated data collector, Operation Instructions, Ref No 55, 410.000 B.E., 37 pp., Kempten, 1992. Pandey, A. and Chadha, R. K.: Surface loading and triggered earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna region, Western India, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 139, 207–223, 2003. Sivakumar, B.: Chaos theory in hydrology: Important issues and interpretations, J. Hydrol., 227, 1–20, 2000. Sivakumar, B.,Phoon, K. K., Liong, S. Y., and Liaw, C. Y.: A systematic approach to noise reduction in observed chaotic time series, J. Hydrol., 219(3–4), 103–135, 1999c. Sugihara, G. and May, R. M.: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series, Nature, 344, 734–741, 1990. Takens, F.: Detecting strange attractors in turbulence, in: Dynamical Systems and Turbulence, edited by: Rand, D. A. and Young, L. S.: Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 898, Springer, Berlin, 366–381, 1981. Theiler, J.: Efficient algorithm for estimating the correlation dimension from a set of discrete points, Phys. Rev. A., 36(9), 4456–4462, 1987.