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www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/169/2010/
doi:10.5194/npg-17-169-2010
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Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence
1Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, California, 95616, USA
2Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California, 95616, USA
3Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA
Abstract. For the purposes of this study, an interval is the elapsed time between two earthquakes in a designated region; the minimum magnitude for the earthquakes is prescribed. A record-breaking interval is one that is longer (or shorter) than preceding intervals; a starting time must be specified. We consider global earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 and show that the record-breaking intervals are well estimated by a Poissonian (random) theory. We also consider the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and show that the record-breaking intervals are approximated by very different statistics. In both cases, we calculate the number of record-breaking intervals (nrb) and the record-breaking interval durations Δtrb as a function of "natural time", the number of elapsed events. We also calculate the ratio of record-breaking long intervals to record-breaking short intervals as a function of time, r(t), which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data. Our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with accelerated moment release (AMR) theory.
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Citation: Yoder, M. R., Turcotte, D. L., and Rundle, J. B.: Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 169-176, doi:10.5194/npg-17-169-2010, 2010. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
