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www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/85/2010/
doi:10.5194/npg-17-85-2010
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Variable predictability in deterministic dissipative sandpile
1Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, UMR 7154, CNRS, France
2Finance Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia
3International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russia
Abstract. It is known that some quiescence precedes the strong events in the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld sand-pile (Pepke and Carlson, 1994) We introduce dissipation depending on the propagation of the events into this model such that in the constructed model the growth of activity occurs before the strong events. This fact allows the prediction of them in advance with a certain efficiency. This efficiency is variable in time. The best predictability is observed during subcritical time ranges, while the efficiency is definitely worse in the supercritical state.
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Citation: Shnirman, M. G. and Shapoval, A. B.: Variable predictability in deterministic dissipative sandpile, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 85-91, doi:10.5194/npg-17-85-2010, 2010. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
