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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 101-112, 2017
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/24/101/2017/
doi:10.5194/npg-24-101-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
22 Feb 2017
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on the particle swarm optimization and their applications to the predictability problems
Qin Zheng et al.

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Short summary
When the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity of the dynamical model on the prediction variable will lead to failure of the ADJ-CNOP method; when the objective function has multiple extreme values, ADJ-CNOP has a large probability of producing local CNOPs, hence making false estimations of the lower bound of maximum predictable time.
When the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity...
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