<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rdf:RDF xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#" xmlns="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"><channel rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/xml/rss1_0.xml"><title>NPG - Latest Articles</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/</link><description>Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics Latest Articles</description><items><rdf:Seq><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/395/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/383/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/371/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/361/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/345/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/339/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/329/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/319/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/303/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/293/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/287/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/283/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/273/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/269/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/245/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/237/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/221/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/211/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/201/2010/" /><rdf:li resource="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/187/2010/" /></rdf:Seq></items></channel><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/395/2010/"><title>The use of artificial neural networks to analyze and predict alongshore sediment transport</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/395/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;The use of artificial neural networks to analyze and predict alongshore sediment transport&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 395-404, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): B. van Maanen, G. Coco, K. R. Bryan, and B. G. Ruessink&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to predict the
depth-integrated alongshore suspended sediment transport rate using 4 input
variables (water depth, wave height and period, and alongshore velocity).
The ANN was trained and validated using a dataset obtained on the intertidal
beach of Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Root-mean-square deviation between
observations and predictions was calculated to show that, for this specific
dataset, the ANN (&amp;epsilon;&lt;sub&gt;rms&lt;/sub&gt;=0.43) outperforms the commonly used
Bailard (1981) formula (&amp;epsilon;&lt;sub&gt;rms&lt;/sub&gt;=1.63), even when this formula
is calibrated (&amp;epsilon;&lt;sub&gt;rms&lt;/sub&gt;=0.66). Because of correlations between
input variables, the predictive quality of the ANN can be improved further
by considering only 3 out of the 4 available input variables (&amp;epsilon;&lt;sub&gt;rms&lt;/sub&gt;=0.39). Finally, we use the partial derivatives method to &quot;open
and lighten&quot; the generated ANNs with the purpose of showing that, although
specific to the dataset in question, they are not &quot;black-box&quot; type models
and can be used to analyze the physical processes associated with alongshore
sediment transport. In this case, the alongshore component of the velocity,
by itself or in combination with other input variables, has the largest
explanatory power. Moreover, the behaviour of the ANN indicates that
predictions can be unphysical and therefore unreliable when the input lies
outside the parameter space over which the ANN has been developed. Our
approach of combining the strong predictive power of ANNs with
&quot;lightening&quot; the black box and testing its sensitivity, demonstrates that
the use of an ANN approach can result in the development of generalized
models of suspended sediment transport.</description><dc:date>2010-09-02T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/383/2010/"><title>Wave vector analysis methods using multi-point measurements</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/383/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Wave vector analysis methods using multi-point measurements&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 383-394, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): Y. Narita, K.-H. Glassmeier, and U. Motschmann&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Recent developments of multi-point measurements in space provide a means to
analyze spacecraft data directly in the wave vector domain. For turbulence
study this means that we are able to estimate energy, helicity, and higher
order moments in the wave vector domain without assuming Taylor's hypothesis
or axisymmetry around the mean magnetic field. The methods of the wave vector
analysis are presented and applied to four-point data of Cluster in the solar
wind.</description><dc:date>2010-09-01T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/371/2010/"><title>Spatial structures and directionalities in Monsoonal precipitation over South Asia</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/371/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Spatial structures and directionalities in Monsoonal precipitation over South Asia&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 371-381, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): N. Malik, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Precipitation during the monsoon season over the Indian subcontinent occurs
in form of enormously complex spatiotemporal patterns due to the underlying
dynamics of atmospheric circulation and varying topography. Employing methods
from nonlinear time series analysis, we study spatial structures of the
rainfall field during the summer monsoon and identify principle regions where
the dynamics of monsoonal rainfall is more coherent or homogenous. Moreover,
we estimate the time delay patterns of rain events. Here we present an
analysis of two separate high resolution gridded data sets of daily rainfall
covering the Indian subcontinent. Using the method of event synchronization
(ES), we estimate regions where heavy rain events during monsoon happen in
some lag synchronised form. Further using the delay behaviour of rainfall
events, we estimate the directionalities related to the progress of such type
of rainfall events. The Active (break) phase of a monsoon is characterised by
an increase(decrease) of rainfall over certain regions of the Indian
subcontinent. We show that our method is able to identify regions of such
coherent rainfall activity.</description><dc:date>2010-09-01T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/361/2010/"><title>Image-model coupling: application to an ionospheric storm</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/361/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Image-model coupling: application to an ionospheric storm&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 361-369, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): N. D. Smith, D. Pokhotelov, C. N. Mitchell, and C. J. Budd&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Techniques such as tomographic reconstruction may be used to provide images
of electron content in the ionosphere. Models are also available which
attempt to describe the dominant physical processes operating in the
ionosphere, or the statistical relationships between ionospheric variables.
It is sensible to try and couple model output to tomographic images with the
aim of inferring the values of driver variables which best replicate some
description of electron content imaged in the ionosphere, according to some
criterion. This is a challenging task. The following describes an attempt to
couple an ionospheric model to a tomographic reconstruction of the
geomagnetic storm of 20 November 2003, along a latitudal line segment above
north America. A simple model was chosen to reduce the number of input
drivers that were varied. The investigation illustrates some of the issues
involved in image-model coupling. The ability to make scientific deductions
depends on the accuracy of the assumptions in the ionospheric model and the
accuracy of the tomographic reconstruction. An ensemble technique was used to
help assess confidence in the reconstruction.</description><dc:date>2010-08-20T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/345/2010/"><title>Energy transformations and dissipation of nonlinear internal waves over  New Jersey's continental shelf</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/345/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Energy transformations and dissipation of nonlinear internal waves over  New Jersey's continental shelf&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 345-360, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): E. L. Shroyer, J. N. Moum, and J. D. Nash&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The energetics of large amplitude, high-frequency nonlinear internal waves
(NLIWs) observed over the New Jersey continental shelf are summarized from
ship and mooring data acquired in August 2006. NLIW energy was typically on
the order of 10&lt;sup&gt;5&lt;/sup&gt; Jm&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, and the wave dissipative loss was near
50 W m&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;. However, wave energies (dissipations) were
~10 (~2) times greater than these values during a particular
week-long period. In general, the leading waves in a packet grew in energy
across the outer shelf, reached peak values near 40 km inshore of the shelf
break, and then lost energy to turbulent mixing. Wave growth was attributed
to the bore-like nature of the internal tide, as wave groups that exhibited
larger long-term (lasting for a few hours) displacements of the pycnocline
offshore typically had greater energy inshore. For ship-observed NLIWs, the
average dissipative loss over the region of decay scaled with the peak energy
in waves; extending this scaling to mooring data produces estimates of NLIW
dissipative loss consistent with those made using the flux divergence of wave
energy. The decay time scale of the NLIWs was approximately 12 h
corresponding to a length scale of 35 km (&lt;i&gt;O&lt;/i&gt;(100) wavelengths). Imposed on
these larger scale energetic trends, were short, rapid exchanges associated
with wave interactions and shoaling on a localized topographic rise. Both of
these events resulted in the onset of shear instabilities and large energy
loss to turbulent mixing.</description><dc:date>2010-08-03T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/339/2010/"><title>Self-organized criticality in solar flares: a cellular automata approach</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/339/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Self-organized criticality in solar flares: a cellular automata approach&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 339-344, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): L. F. Morales and P. Charbonneau&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;We give an overview of a novel lattice-based avalanche model that reproduces
well a number of observed statistical properties of solar flares. The
anisotropic lattice is defined as a network of vertically-connected nodes
subjected to horizontal random displacements mimicking the kinks introduced
by random motions of the photospheric footpoints of magnetic fieldlines
forming a coronal loop. We focus here on asymmetrical driving displacements,
which under our geometrical interpretation of the lattice correspond to a net
direction of twist of the magnetic fieldlines about the loop axis. We show
that a net vertical electrical current density does build up in our lattice,
as one would expect from systematic twisting of a loop-like magnetic
structure, and that the presence of this net current has a profound impact on
avalanche dynamics. The presence of an additional energy reservoir tends to
increase the mean energy released by avalanches, and yield a probability
distribution of released energy in better agreement with observational
inferences than in its absence. Symmetrical driving displacements are in
better conceptual agreement with a random shuffling of photospheric
footpoint, and yield a power-law distribution of energy release with exponent
larger than 2, as required in Parker's nanoflare model of coronal heating. On
the other hand, moderate asymmetrical driving generate energy distribution
exponents that are similar to those obtained from SOHO EUV observations.</description><dc:date>2010-07-22T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/329/2010/"><title>Spatio-temporal error growth in the multi-scale Lorenz'96 model</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/329/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Spatio-temporal error growth in the multi-scale Lorenz'96 model&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 329-337, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): S. Herrera, J. Fernández, M. A. Rodríguez, and J. M. Gutiérrez&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The influence of multiple spatio-temporal scales on the error growth and
predictability of atmospheric flows is analyzed throughout the paper. To this
aim, we consider the two-scale Lorenz'96
model and study the interplay
of the slow and fast variables on the error growth dynamics. It is shown that
when the coupling between slow and fast variables is weak the slow variables
dominate the evolution of fluctuations whereas in the case of strong coupling
the fast variables impose a non-trivial complex error growth pattern on the
slow variables with two different regimes, before and after saturation of
fast variables. This complex behavior is analyzed using the recently
introduced Mean-Variance Logarithmic (MVL) diagram.</description><dc:date>2010-07-22T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/319/2010/"><title>Assessing microstructures of pyrrhotites in basalts by multifractal analysis</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/319/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Assessing microstructures of pyrrhotites in basalts by multifractal analysis&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 319-327, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): S. Xie, Q. Cheng, S. Zhang, and K. Huang&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Understanding and describing spatial arrangements of
mineral particles and determining the mineral distribution structure are
important to model the rock-forming process. Geometric properties of
individual mineral particles can be estimated from thin sections, and
different models have been proposed to quantify the spatial complexity of
mineral arrangement. The Gejiu tin-polymetallic ore-forming district,
located in Yunnan province, southwestern China, is chosen as the study area.
The aim of this paper is to apply fractal and multifractal analysis to
quantify distribution patterns of pyrrhotite particles from twenty-eight
binary images obtained from seven basalt segments and then to discern the
possible petrological formation environments of the basalts based on
concentrations of trace elements. The areas and perimeters of pyrrhotite
particles were measured for each image. Perimeter-area fractal analysis
shows that the perimeter and area of pyrrhotite particles follow a power-law
relationship, which implies the scale-invariance of the shapes of the
pyrrhotites. Furthermore, the spatial variation of the pyrrhotite particles
in space was characterized by multifractal analysis using the method of
moments. The results show that the average values of the area-perimeter
exponent (&lt;i&gt;D&lt;sub&gt;AP&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt;), the width of the multifractal spectra (&amp;Delta;(&lt;i&gt;D(0)&amp;minus;D(2)&lt;/i&gt;) and &amp;Delta;(&lt;i&gt;D(q&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;min&lt;/sub&gt;)&amp;minus;&lt;i&gt;D(q&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt;))) and the multifractality
index (&amp;tau;&quot;(1)) for the pyrrhotite particles reach their minimum in the second
basalt segment, which implies that the spatial arrangement of pyrrhotite
particles in Segment 2 is less heterogeneous. Geochemical trace element
analysis results distinguish the second basalt segment sample from other
basalt samples. In this aspect, the fractal and multifractal analysis may
provide new insights into the quantitative assessment of mineral
microstructures which may be closely associated with the petrogenesis as
shown by the bulk-rock geochemical analysis.</description><dc:date>2010-07-19T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/303/2010/"><title>A model for large-amplitude internal solitary waves with trapped cores</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/303/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;A model for large-amplitude internal solitary waves with trapped cores&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 303-318, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): K. R. Helfrich and B. L. White&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Large-amplitude internal solitary waves in continuously stratified systems
can be found by solution of the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long (DJL) equation. For
finite ambient density gradients at the surface (bottom) for waves of
depression (elevation) these solutions may develop recirculating cores for
wave speeds above a critical value. As typically modeled, these recirculating
cores contain densities outside the ambient range, may be statically
unstable, and thus are physically questionable. To address these issues the
problem for trapped-core solitary waves is reformulated. A finite core of
homogeneous density and velocity, but unknown shape, is assumed. The core
density is arbitrary, but generally set equal to the ambient density on the
streamline bounding the core. The flow outside the core satisfies the DJL
equation. The flow in the core is given by a vorticity-streamfunction
relation that may be arbitrarily specified. For simplicity, the simplest
choice of a stagnant, zero vorticity core in the frame of the wave is
assumed. A pressure matching condition is imposed along the core boundary.
Simultaneous numerical solution of the DJL equation and the core condition
gives the exterior flow and the core shape. Numerical solutions of
time-dependent non-hydrostatic equations initiated with the new stagnant-core
DJL solutions show that for the ambient stratification considered, the waves
are stable up to a critical amplitude above which shear instability destroys
the initial wave. Steadily propagating trapped-core waves formed by
lock-release initial conditions also agree well with the theoretical 
wave properties despite the presence of a &quot;leaky&quot; core region that contains
vorticity of opposite sign from the ambient flow.</description><dc:date>2010-07-15T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/293/2010/"><title>A simple metric to quantify seismicity clustering</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/293/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;A simple metric to quantify seismicity clustering&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 293-302, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): N. F. Cho, K. F. Tiampo, S. D. Mckinnon, J. A. Vallejos, W. Klein, and R. Dominguez&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Thirulamai-Mountain (TM) metric was first developed to study ergodicity
in fluids and glasses (Thirumalai
and Mountain, 1993) using the concept of effective ergodicity,
where a large but finite time interval is considered. Tiampo et al. (2007) employed
the TM metric to earthquake systems to search for effective ergodic periods,
which are considered to be metastable equilibrium states that are disrupted
by large events. The physical meaning of the TM metric for seismicity is
addressed here in terms of the clustering of earthquakes in both time and
space for different sets of data. It is shown that the TM metric is highly
dependent not only on spatial/temporal seismicity clustering, but on the past
seismic activity of the region and the time intervals considered as well, and
that saturation occurs over time, resulting in a lower sensitivity to local
clustering. These results confirm that the TM metric can be used to quantify
seismicity clustering from both spatial and temporal perspectives, in which
the disruption of effective ergodic periods are caused by the agglomeration
of events.</description><dc:date>2010-07-02T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/287/2010/"><title>Is current disruption associated with an inverse cascade?</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/287/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Is current disruption associated with an inverse cascade?&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 287-292, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): Z. Vörös, A. Runov, M. P. Leubner, W. Baumjohann, and M. Volwerk&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Current disruption (CD) and the related kinetic instabilities in the near-Earth magnetosphere represent
physical mechanisms which can trigger multi-scale substorm activity including global reorganizations
of the magnetosphere. Lui et al. (2008) proposed a CD scenario in which the kinetic scale linear modes
grow and reach the typical dipolarization scales through an inverse cascade. The experimental verification
of the inverse nonlinear cascade is based on wavelet analysis.
In this paper the Hilbert-Huang transform is used which is suitable
for nonlinear systems and allows to reconstruct the time-frequency
representation of empirical decomposed modes in an adaptive manner.
It was found that, in the Lui et al. (2008) event, the modes evolve
globally from high-frequencies to low-frequencies. However, there
are also local frequency evolution trends oriented towards
high-frequencies, indicating that the underlying processes involve
multi-scale physics and non-stationary fluctuations for which the
simple inverse cascade scenario is not correct.</description><dc:date>2010-06-16T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/283/2010/"><title>&lt;i&gt;Preface&lt;/i&gt; &quot;Nonlinear processes in oceanic and atmospheric flows&quot;</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/283/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Preface&lt;/i&gt; &quot;Nonlinear processes in oceanic and atmospheric flows&quot;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 283-285, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): A. M. Mancho, S. Wiggins, A. Turiel, E. Hernández-García, C. López, and E. García-Ladona&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear phenomena are essential ingredients in many oceanic and atmospheric
processes, and successful understanding of them benefits from
multidisciplinary collaboration between oceanographers, meteorologists,
physicists and mathematicians. The present Special Issue on &quot;Nonlinear
Processes in Oceanic and Atmospheric Flows&quot; contains selected contributions
from attendants to the workshop which, in the above spirit, was held in
Castro Urdiales, Spain, in July 2008. Here we summarize the Special Issue
contributions, which include papers on the characterization of ocean
transport in the Lagrangian and in the Eulerian frameworks, generation and
variability of jets and waves, interactions of fluid flow with plankton
dynamics or heavy drops, scaling in meteorological fields, and statistical
properties of El Niño Southern Oscillation.</description><dc:date>2010-05-31T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/273/2010/"><title>FEM and ANN combined approach for predicting pressure source parameters at Etna volcano</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/273/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;FEM and ANN combined approach for predicting pressure source parameters at Etna volcano&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 273-282, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): A. Di Stefano, G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, L. Fortuna, and G. Nunnari&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A hybrid approach for forward and inverse geophysical modeling, based on
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Finite Element Method (FEM), is proposed
in order to properly identify the parameters of volcanic pressure sources
from geophysical observations at ground surface. The neural network is
trained and tested with a set of patterns obtained by the solutions of
numerical models based on FEM. The geophysical changes caused by magmatic
pressure sources were computed developing a 3-D FEM model with the aim to
include the effects of topography and medium heterogeneities at Etna volcano.
ANNs are used to interpolate the complex non linear relation between
geophysical observations and source parameters both for forward and inverse
modeling. The results show that the combination of neural networks and FEM is
a powerful tool for a straightforward and accurate estimation of source
parameters in volcanic regions.</description><dc:date>2010-05-20T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/269/2010/"><title>&lt;i&gt;Brief communication&lt;/i&gt; &quot;A  statistical  validation for the cycles found in air temperature data using a Morlet  wavelet-based method&quot;</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/269/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Brief communication&lt;/i&gt; &quot;A  statistical  validation for the cycles found in air temperature data using a Morlet  wavelet-based method&quot;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 269-272, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): S. Nicolay, G. Mabille, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Recently, new cycles, associated with periods of 30 and 43 months,
respectively, have been observed by the authors in surface air temperature
time series, using a wavelet-based methodology. Although many evidences
attest the validity of this method applied to climatic data, no systematic
study of its efficiency has been carried out. Here, we estimate confidence
levels for this approach and show that the observed cycles are significant.
Taking these cycles into consideration should prove helpful in increasing the
accuracy of the climate model projections of climate change and weather
forecast.</description><dc:date>2010-05-20T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/245/2010/"><title>Lower-hybrid (LH) oscillitons evolved from ion-acoustic (IA)/ion-cyclotron (IC) solitary waves: effect of electron inertia</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/245/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Lower-hybrid (LH) oscillitons evolved from ion-acoustic (IA)/ion-cyclotron (IC) solitary waves: effect of electron inertia&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 245-268, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): J. Z. G. Ma and A. Hirose&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Lower-hybrid (LH) oscillitons reveal one aspect of geocomplexities. They have
been observed by rockets and satellites in various regions in geospace. They
are extraordinary solitary waves the envelop of which has a relatively longer
period, while the amplitude is modulated violently by embedded oscillations
of much shorter periods. We employ a two-fluid (electron-ion) slab model in a
Cartesian geometry to expose the excitation of LH oscillitons. Relying on a
set of self-similar equations, we first produce, as a reference, the
well-known three shapes (sinusoidal, sawtooth, and spiky or bipolar) of
parallel-propagating ion-acoustic (IA) solitary structures in the absence of
electron inertia, along with their Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) power
spectra. The study is then expanded to illustrate distorted structures of the
IA modes by taking into account all the three components of variables. In
this case, the ion-cyclotron (IC) mode comes into play. Furthermore, the
electron inertia is incorporated in the equations. It is found that the
inertia modulates the coupled IA/IC envelops to produce LH oscillitons. The
newly excited structures are characterized by a normal low-frequency IC
solitary envelop embedded by high-frequency, small-amplitude LH oscillations
which are superimposed upon by higher-frequency but smaller-amplitude IA
ingredients. The oscillitons are shown to be sensitive to several input
parameters (e.g., the Mach number, the electron-ion mass/temperature ratios,
and the electron thermal speed). Interestingly, whenever a LH oscilliton is
triggered, there occurs a density cavity the depth of which can reach up to
20% of the background density, along with density humps on both sides of the
cavity. Unexpectedly, a mode at much lower frequencies is also found beyond
the IC band. Future studies are finally highlighted. The appendices give a
general dispersion relation and specific ones of linear modes relevant to all
the nonlinear modes encountered in the text.</description><dc:date>2010-05-07T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/237/2010/"><title>Kernel estimation and display of a five-dimensional conditional intensity  function</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/237/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Kernel estimation and display of a five-dimensional conditional intensity  function&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 237-244, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): G. Adelfio&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The aim of this paper is to find a convenient and effective method of
displaying some second order properties in a neighbourhood of a selected
point of the process. The used techniques are based on very general
high-dimensional nonparametric smoothing developed to define a more general
version of the conditional intensity function introduced in earlier
earthquake studies by Vere-Jones (1978).</description><dc:date>2010-04-22T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/221/2010/"><title>The effect of volatile bubble growth rate on the periodic dynamics of shallow volcanic systems</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/221/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;The effect of volatile bubble growth rate on the periodic dynamics of shallow volcanic systems&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 221-235, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): I. L'Heureux&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Many volcanic eruptions exhibit periodic behavior. For instance, periodic
ground inflations and deflations in proximity to a volcano are the
consequences of periodic overpressure variations in the magma conduit and
periodic magma flow rate. The period varies from a few hours to many years,
depending on the volcano parameters. On the other hand, volatile components
exsolve from an ascending magma by forming bubbles. The strong dependence of
the melt viscosity with the volatile concentration generates a positive
feedback on the magma flow. We consider here the effect of the growth of
volatile bubbles on the dynamics of a magmatic flow in a shallow volcanic
system. Various expressions for the bubble growth rate are treated, thus
generalizing previous work. In particular, a growth rate law derived from a
recent many-bubble theory is considered. It is seen that, for a range of
flow rate values at the base of the magma conduit, the system undergoes a
Hopf bifurcation. Periodic solutions compatible with the observations are
generated. This work shows that measurements of volcanic activity have the
potential to test various bubble growth models in magmatic systems.</description><dc:date>2010-04-20T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/211/2010/"><title>An extension of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach and its applications</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/211/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;An extension of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach and its applications&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 211-220, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): M. Mu, W. Duan, Q. Wang, and R. Zhang&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)
was previously proposed to find the optimal initial perturbation
(CNOP-I) in a given constraint. In this paper, we extend the CNOP
approach to search for the optimal combined mode of initial
perturbations and model parameter perturbations. This optimal
combined mode, also named CNOP, has two special cases: one is CNOP-I
that only links with initial perturbations and has the largest
nonlinear evolution at a prediction time; while the other is merely
related to the parameter perturbations and is called CNOP-P, which
causes the largest departure from a given reference state at a
prediction time. The CNOP approach allows us to explore not only the
first kind of predictability related to initial errors, but also the
second kind of predictability associated with model parameter
errors, moreover, the predictability problems of the coexistence of
initial errors and parameter errors. With the CNOP approach, we
study the ENSO predictability by a theoretical ENSO model. The
results demonstrate that the prediction errors caused by the CNOP
errors are only slightly larger than those yielded by the CNOP-I
errors and then the model parameter errors may play a minor role in
producing significant uncertainties for ENSO predictions. Thus, it
is clear that the CNOP errors and their resultant prediction errors
illustrate the combined effect on predictability of initial errors
and model parameter errors and can be used to explore the relative
importance of initial errors and parameter errors in yielding
considerable prediction errors, which helps identify the dominant
source of the errors that cause prediction uncertainties. It is
finally expected that more realistic models will be adopted to
investigate this use of CNOP.</description><dc:date>2010-04-13T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/201/2010/"><title>The effect of shear on the generation of gravity waves</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/201/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;The effect of shear on the generation of gravity waves&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 201-210, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): M. Humi&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Previous research regarding the solutions of Long's equation always presumed
that the flow far upstream is without shear. In this paper we derive the
proper form of this equation when shear is present. We then apply a sequence
of transformations to this equation which make it possible to linearize it
while preserving its physical contents. We then derive conditions under which
the solutions of this linear equation admit the existence (or creation) of
gravity waves. We present also a solution of this model equation when the
presence of shear in the overall flow is &quot;small&quot;.</description><dc:date>2010-04-12T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item><item rdf:about="http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/187/2010/"><title>Estimating the diffusive heat flux across a stable interface forced by  convective motions</title><link>http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/187/2010/</link><description>&lt;b&gt;Estimating the diffusive heat flux across a stable interface forced by  convective motions&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nonlinear Processes  in Geophysics, 17, 187-200, 2010&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Author(s): C. Chemel, C. Staquet, and J.-P. Chollet&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Entrainment at the top of the convectively-driven boundary layer (CBL) is
revisited using data from a high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES). In
the range of values of the bulk Richardson number &lt;I&gt;Ri&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;B&lt;/sub&gt; studied here
(about 15&amp;ndash;25), the entrainment process is mainly driven by the scouring of
the interfacial layer (IL) by convective cells. We estimate the length and
time scales associated with these convective cells by computing
one-dimensional wavenumber and frequency kinetic energy spectra. Using a
Taylor assumption, based upon transport by the convective cells, we show that
the frequency and wavenumber spectra follow the Kolmogorov law in
the inertial range, with the multiplicative constant being in good agreement
with previous measurements in the atmosphere. We next focus on the heat flux
at the top of the CBL, &lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;12&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;22&quot; ALIGN=&quot;MIDDLE&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-2.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{F}_i$&quot;&gt;, which is parameterized in classical
closure models for the entrainment rate &lt;I&gt;w&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt; at the interface. We show
that &lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;12&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;22&quot; ALIGN=&quot;MIDDLE&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-2.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{F}_i$&quot;&gt; can be computed exactly using the method proposed by
Winters et al. (1995), from which the values of a turbulent diffusivity
&lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;9&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;9&quot; ALIGN=&quot;BOTTOM&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-4.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{K}$&quot;&gt; across the IL can be inferred. These values are recovered
by tracking particles within the IL using a Lagrangian stochastic model
coupled with the LES. The relative difference between the Eulerian and
Lagrangian values of &lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;9&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;9&quot; ALIGN=&quot;BOTTOM&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-4.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{K}$&quot;&gt; is found to be lower than 10%. A simple
expression of &lt;I&gt;w&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt; as a function of &lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;9&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;9&quot; ALIGN=&quot;BOTTOM&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-4.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{K}$&quot;&gt; is also proposed.
Our results are finally used to assess the validity of the classical
&quot;first-order'' model for &lt;I&gt;w&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt;. We find that, when &lt;I&gt;Ri&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;B&lt;/sub&gt; is
varied, the values for &lt;I&gt;w&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt; derived from the &quot;first-order'' model
with the exact computation of &lt;IMG
 WIDTH=&quot;12&quot; HEIGHT=&quot;22&quot; ALIGN=&quot;MIDDLE&quot; BORDER=&quot;0&quot;
 SRC=&quot;npg-17-187-2010-2.gif&quot;
 ALT=&quot;$\mathcal{F}_i$&quot;&gt; agree to better than 10% with
those computed directly from the LES (using its definition). The simple
expression we propose appears to provide a reliable estimate of &lt;I&gt;w&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt;
for the largest values of &lt;I&gt;Ri&lt;/I&gt;&lt;sub&gt;B&lt;/sub&gt; only.</description><dc:date>2010-04-08T00:00:00+02:00</dc:date></item></rdf:RDF>