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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 721-729, 2004
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-721-2004
© Author(s) 2004. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
 
21 Dec 2004
Enhanced Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis and detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in the monthly NAO index and temperature records
M. Paluš1 and D. Novotná2 1Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou vĕží 2, 182 07 Prague 8, Czech Republic
2Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bo?ní II/1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic
Abstract. An extension of the Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis (MC SSA) is described, based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, in addition to the test based on variance (eigenvalues). The application of the regularity index, computed from a coarse-grained estimation of mutual information, enhances the test sensitivity and reliability in detection of relatively more regular dynamical modes than those obtained by decomposition of colored noises, in particular, in detection of irregular oscillations embedded in red noise. This enhanced MC SSA is successfully applied in detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in records of monthly average near-surface air temperature from several European locations, as well as in the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index.

Citation: Paluš, M. and Novotná, D.: Enhanced Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis and detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in the monthly NAO index and temperature records, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 721-729, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-721-2004, 2004.
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