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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 129–138, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-129-2005
© Author(s) 2005. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Special issue: Nonlinear processes in solar-terrestrial physics and dynamics...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 129–138, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-129-2005
© Author(s) 2005. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  28 Jan 2005

28 Jan 2005

Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models

P. C. Chu1 and L. M. Ivanov1,2 P. C. Chu and L. M. Ivanov
  • 1Naval Ocean Analysis and Prediction Laboratory Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California, USA
  • 2Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine

Abstract. Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed using the probability density function (PDF) of the irreversible predictability time (IPT) (called τ-PDF) computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the wind-driven circulation. Relationship between attractor's residence time and IPT determines the τ-PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The τ-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multi-modal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of τ-PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the τ-PDF's tail toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.

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