Journal cover Journal topic
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 1.699 IF 1.699
  • IF 5-year value: 1.559 IF 5-year
    1.559
  • CiteScore value: 1.61 CiteScore
    1.61
  • SNIP value: 0.884 SNIP 0.884
  • IPP value: 1.49 IPP 1.49
  • SJR value: 0.648 SJR 0.648
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 52 Scimago H
    index 52
  • h5-index value: 21 h5-index 21
Volume 16, issue 5
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 607-621, 2009
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-16-607-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Nonlinear processes in oceanic and atmospheric flows

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 607-621, 2009
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-16-607-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  26 Oct 2009

26 Oct 2009

The stochastic multiplicative cascade structure of deterministic numerical models of the atmosphere

J. Stolle1, S. Lovejoy1, and D. Schertzer2,3 J. Stolle et al.
  • 1Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Que. H3A 2T8, Canada
  • 2CEREVE, Université Paris Est, Marne-la-Vallée, France
  • 3Météo France, 1 Quai Branly, Paris 75005, France

Abstract. By direct statistical analysis we show that over almost all their range of scales and to within typically better than ±1%, atmospheric fields obtained from analyses and numerical integrations of atmospheric models have the multifractal structure predicted by multiplicative cascade models. We quantify this for the horizontal wind, temperature, and humidity fields at 5 different pressure levels for the ERA40 reanalysis, the Canadian Meteorological Centre Global Environmental Multiscale (CMC, GEM) model, as well as the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecasting System (NOAA, GFS). We investigate the additional prediction that the cascade belongs to a universal multifractal basin of attraction. By demonstrating a "Levy collapse" of the statistical moments to within ±2 to ±5% over most of the range of scales, we conclude that there is good evidence for this. Finally, we discuss how this stochastic multiplicative cascade structure can be exploited in improving ensemble forecasts.

Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Download
Citation
Share