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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 19, issue 5
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 529-539, 2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-529-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 529-539, 2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-529-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 17 Sep 2012

Research article | 17 Sep 2012

Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

A. E. Sterk1, M. P. Holland1, P. Rabassa2, H. W. Broer2, and R. Vitolo1 A. E. Sterk et al.
  • 1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
  • 2Johann Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 407, 9700 AK Groningen, The Netherlands

Abstract. Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small) values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

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