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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 569-575, 2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-569-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
02 Oct 2012
Forecast improvement in Lorenz 96 system
L. Basnarkov1,2 and L. Kocarev1,2,3 1SS. Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, P.O. Box 393, Skopje, Macedonia
2Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Macedonia
3BioCircuits Institute, University of California San Diego, USA
Abstract. Contemporary numerical weather prediction schemes are based on ensemble forecasting. Ensemble members are obtained by taking different (perturbed) models started with different initial conditions. We introduce one type of improved model that represents interactive ensemble of individual models. The improved model's performance is tested with the Lorenz 96 toy model. One complex model is considered as reality, while its imperfect models are taken to be structurally simpler and with lower resolution. The improved model is defined as one with tendency that is weighted average of the tendencies of individual models. The weights are calculated from past observations by minimizing the average difference between the improved model's tendency and that of the reality. It is numerically verified that the improved model has better ability for short-term prediction than any of the individual models.

Citation: Basnarkov, L. and Kocarev, L.: Forecast improvement in Lorenz 96 system, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 569-575, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-569-2012, 2012.
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