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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 23, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 115–126, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 115–126, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 19 May 2016

Research article | 19 May 2016

Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

Pengcheng Yan1, Wei Hou2, and Guolin Feng2 Pengcheng Yan et al.
  • 1Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • 2National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Abstract. A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

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In the previous work (Yan et al., 2015, NPG), we proposed a novel method to detect the transition process of climate change and exposed a new understanding of climate change. In this work, by using this method, we studied several climate changes of the sea surface temperature over the past century. The result shows that the system is bi-stable, and the persist time of transition process is shortened. Besides, a quantitative relation among the transition process parameters is obtained and verified.
In the previous work (Yan et al., 2015, NPG), we proposed a novel method to detect the...
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