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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 291-300, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-291-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
27 Apr 2018
Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi1, David Alberto Salas-de-León2, María Adela Monreal-Gómez2, Norma Leticia Sánchez-Santillán3, and David Salas-Monreal4 1Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Del. Coyoacan, Cd. Mx. 04510, Mexico
2Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Del. Coyoacan, Cd. Mx. 04510, Mexico
3Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Calz. del Hueso 1100, Del. Coyoacán, Villa Quietud, Cd. Mx. 04960, Mexico
4Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Pesquerías, Universidad Veracruzana, Hidalgo No. 617, Col. Río Jamapa, C.P. 94290 Boca del Rio, Veracruz, Mexico
Abstract. Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean–atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.
Citation: Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D. A., Monreal-Gómez, M. A., Sánchez-Santillán, N. L., and Salas-Monreal, D.: Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 291-300, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-291-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Its impact produces, most of the time, natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and of materials and infrastructure that is accounted for in billions of US dollars. Not everything is negative as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. In this study we make a nonlinear analysis of the time series obtained from 1749 to 2012 of the hurricane occurrence in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Its impact produces, most of...
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